Odds are that 2024 will look a lot more like 2016 than 2020.
The final RealClearPolitics polling average for the 2016 race showed Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump by 3.2 points. As of May 1, 2023, the same polling average shows Trump ahead of Joe Biden by 1 point.
Of course, Trump can’t win. Any Republican would do better. Every pundit says so. And when have they ever been wrong?
Trump didn’t enter the 2016 race until June 2015, so a direct comparison between his current polling numbers and those of the last cycle isn’t possible. But those who remember the 2016 race will remember that for most of the cycle, Trump trailed Clinton by rather more than the 3.2 points—as shown in the final RCP average. And of course, Trump won. The press underestimated his appeal.
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